Former President Donald Trump is often going on about his legal troubles as if it was a witch hunt. At first glance when somebody says witch hunt they probably think of America’s most famous witch hunt: The Salem Witch Trials. These trials took place in 1692 and according to the The National Endowment for the Humanities, “19 (people) were hanged, one pressed to death and five others died in jail.”

According to NPR the last known witchcraft trial was in Virginia in 1706. Grace Sherwood was subjected to the only known way, at the time, to determine if she was a witch. The locals tied her up, and tossed her into the Lynnhaven River. Unfortunately for Sherwood, she floated, “which meant that the devil must be supporting her and therefore she was guilty as charged.” As far as I could tell that is still the only method around to determine if someone is a witch.

Since Trump has repeatedly called his legal woes a witch hunt, it might be reasonable to assume he is trying to avoid some sort of skulduggery that is akin to witchcraft. I have never witnessed a witch hunt but I am willing to bet that most witch hunts have been unsuccessful in actually bagging a real witch. It is like someone saying they rode a unicorn. This may be a good legal tactic on the part of the former president. If he can keep his legal woess in the realm of witchcraft, it is highly unlikely he will be convicted. Unless prosecutors are able to tie him up and chuck him into the Potomac to see if he floats.

But to think that Trump’s attorneys would play the witch card is ridiculous. It is more likely he is going to pursue a different definition of a witch hunt. The one we are more familiar with in modern times. Cambridge Dictionary states that a witch hunt is “an attempt to find and punish people whose opinions are unpopular and who are said to be a danger to society.” This definition is more akin to Senator Joseph McCarthy’s shaking the apple tree in the 1950s trying to see how many delicious pinko reds would fall to the ground.

That definition definitely works for some people. However, I think Trump is using the  Merriam-Webster definition that states a witch hunt is “the searching out and deliberate harassment of those (such as political opponents) with unpopular views.” This definition fits Trump better as he campaigns around the country. He can cast himself off as a victim of socialist regime hell bent on purging the country of people hell bent on making America great again. I think this definition is the paranoid Orwellian looking over his shoulder. What are you hiding in your basement?

The former president is facing some serious federal criminal indictments. Mixing federal cases and witchcraft makes little sense at first glance. But it really is ingenious. The last convicted witch was at the turn of the beginning of the 18th century. Federal cases, however, are a different matter.

Many years ago I heard a lawyer say if the Feds want you the feds will get. Trump has to realise this. He has mentioned Al Capone several times in speeches. Capone, one of the notorious and vicious mob bosses of the 1930s, gets convicted on income tax charges. Really. At least Hunter Biden has some gun charges thrown in with his tax fraud case. FBI.gov says, “Capone was convicted after trial and on November 24, (1931) was sentenced to eleven years in federal prison, fined $50,000 and charged $7,692 for court costs, in addition to $215,000 plus interest due on back taxes.” And to add a cherry on top, the feds threw in an extra six months for contempt of court.

In the past decade sports analytics have been used to improve teams performance on and off the field. I am sure high-priced law firms have an analytics department. “Legal analytics,” according to LexisNexis.com are “tools (to) help lawyers make data-driven decisions on which to build their legal strategies. That could mean things like knowing the probability of a specific motion outcome, how seemingly unrelated cases connect, or how much a settlement award could be.” A little bit more sophisticated than seeing if a person accused of witchcraft floats or not.

What is interesting is that Trump’s lawyers have to be aware of the success rate the Feds have when they go to trial. First off it appears that the Feds are always the home team. It is their ball, their court and their rules. According to pewresearch.com they have a huge winning percentage, too. “In fiscal year 2022, only 290 of 71,954 defendants in federal criminal cases – about 0.4% – went to trial and were acquitted, Another 1,379 went to trial and were found guilty (1.9%).”

But here is the kicker, almost 90% of defendants in 2020 didn’t even go to trial. They pleaded guilty “while another 8.2% had their case dismissed at some point in the judicial process.” Just looking at the percentages less than 9% of those defendants in a federal criminal case came out on top.

Witch hunts hardly, if ever, turn up a real witch let alone convict someone of some sort of sorcery. However, a witchcraft trial is an iffy outcome. If you float you are guilty. And, well, if you don’t, you drown. Despite the 50-50 odds of winning neither verdict generates a positive outcome. Analytics can’t be telling Trump’s lawyers to take those long shot odds in Federal court. Whichever course he takes it looks like he is going to get dunked in the Potomac River; or spending time in Secret Service protection, just not in the Oval Office