
The Democrats could learn a thing or two from the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby–and possibly the GOP 2016 Presidential Primaries. Both races were run with a crowded field and a on a sloppy, muddy track.
The crowded Democratic field just got a front runner now that former Vice President Joe Biden officially joined the mob of hopefuls lining up like jockeys looking for the starting gate at Churchill Downs. The crowded Derby field and sloppy track conditions made for an exciting Kentucky Derby but track stewards had to adjudicate the race when the leader and favorite, Maximum Security, jumped lanes causing chaos among the field which lead them to disqualify the winner and name a long shot “Country House” the winner. It was a tough call even using instant replay. At least in football and baseball there are lines and definitive bases to be touched. The Derby was a mass of equestrian flesh doing a mud-running-slide dance to the right. It was first time in Kentucky Derby history that winner was disqualified.
But just maybe the race was similar to the 2016 GOP Presidential Primaries except without instant replay. It would be an understatement to say that most people were mystified to see Donald Trump break from the pack and win the GOP Derby. Some may have considered his campaign a swerving mud-sliding race. It held up and he was able take the national race, too.

It could easily be argued that in the 2016 Presidential race there was no Secretariat running. One of the greatest races horses ever, Secretariat, won the Derby in 1973 with the fastest time ever: at 1:59.4. In that race “Big Red,” Secretariat’s affectionate nickname, was challenged by Sham. Sham came in second and finished the race under two minutes, a time that would have put him in the winning circle in just about any other Derby. Two weeks later Secretariat won the Preakness Stakes and then set another record at Belmont’s mile-and-a-half race winning easily by 31 lengths. No question about who won that race.
Unfortunately for us, the last couple of Presidential races have not featured a Secretariat or a Sham. To make matters worst the upcoming political race can be counted not in minutes but days–more than 500 days. November 3rd 2020 is when we cross the finish line. The race for the Triple Crown takes about a month.
There are a lot of things that I am interested in. Most of the time I know very little about them. But that does not keep me from acting like a know-it-all. For instance, I know very little about horse racing and its sister activity gambling. Two things I am clueless about. I once read the book Seabiscuit: An American Legend. I also saw the movie. That would hardly make me a handicapper at the next Preakness. I have been to one race track and have seen the ponies run–and a wiener dog race, too! I even looked at the racing program It made me feel like a parakeet looking at himself in a mirror. It was the closest thing to hieroglyphics without needing a Rosetta Stone published in the modern world.
I looked a plethora of coded racing information buried on those pages. Information from previous races, winnings that also included track conditions and when the last time the horse was exercised. I am sure somewhere in there it had what the horse ate for breakfast. Some sort of oats I would assume. To a novice bettor only three things really stuck out in my mind: the name of the horse, the number of the horse and of course, the odds. The only real information in the program that I could somewhat understand and that made any sense to me.
As I perused field prior to the running of the Kentucky Derby the name that jumped out at me was Long Range Toddy. He was running in the 18th position with odds 50:1. I would think those odds are in the deep end of the betting spectrum and equivalent to high risk junk bonds in investing–something else I know little about.
This leads me to another area of interest: math. My understanding of math is limited. My cursory knowledge of odds and probability comes from math classes with the classic flipping a coin or rolling one die. Two dice becomes a bit more complicated and can be likened to juggling with three or more objects–something I have not mastered.

How horse racing odds are originally set is beyond me. I do know that the odds eventually come down to how much money people are betting on one horse compared to other horses. The more money bet on a horse the lower the odds and the lower the payout if the nag wins. It all seems very democratic, sort of a peoples’ choice. A real money is free speech movement without Citizens United and the Supreme Court. The bettors set the odds. In the case of Long Range Toddy I would assume that people were not really that confident about where he will finish after running 10 furlongs.
This brings me to a furlong. What the hell is a furlong? According to Britannica, a furlong is “old English unit of length, based on the length of an average plowed furrow.” Really. So the distance of the race is going to be based on the average length of what a plow horse plodded back in the time when King John was signing the Magna Carta, which was 1215 for those scratching their heads on that one.

Not being a plow boy I had no idea that a furrow in Merry Old England in the Feudal era was 40 × 4-rod acre, or 660 modern feet. Here is where I get a bit confused because most corn fields, wheat fields that I have seen are square and most race tracks are round. This brings me to the question of how that translates to the oval track at Churchill Downs. Did somebody square a circle in making 10 furlongs a mile-and-a-quarter round-about. If so, shouldn’t this sort of think be studied in school. Who gets credit for rounding the square? Is this similar to what we learned in elementary school about Ben Franklin and electricity? Or is it more like the Electoral College, which is not an institute of higher learning, but more of the racing stewards of elections. The scholars wizards that ultimately decide who wins the race after all the people have laid down their bets. Or is that the Supreme Court?
This brings me to politics. A different kind of horse race. The more I read and see the more perplexed I get. There is nobody yelling “Get your programs! You can’t tell the candidates without a program!” But even with a program I doubt if I could tell one candidate from another. We should give them numbers and fancy jockey uniforms. But rest assured, any political program would be just as confusing as watching Fox and Friends and then turning to Rachel Maddow. Are we all seeing the same race?
Say what you will about racing programs there is a consistency to the information lodged in those pages. In some ways, though, candidates have their own programs. They come out in hardback, paperback, Kindle and Audiobook editions. I am not sure how many people plow through or listen to these “why me now America” books. But what I have decided is that I will pick my favorite candidate by the title of their book. It is the same way I pick races horses: by their name.
After looking at some of the books candidates have written it is no wonder Donald Trump won in 2016. His book by far had the best title: The Art of the Deal. The perceived front runner at the gate was Jeb Bush but his book was Immigration War combined two objectionable topics. Immigration is always an American hot button topic in any time. War? The war part reminds me of FDR’s 1936 where he proclaims that he hates war “Eleanor hates war, and our dog, Fala, hates war.” Jeb! that dog just didn’t hunt.

And Ted Cruz’s book was even worst: A Time for Truth. Really? From a politician, truth? I hate to say it but if Trump got one thing right it was his moniker for “lying” Ted Cruz. I am not sure how Ted even qualified to run in that race. Wasn’t he a Canadian?
Another candidate that should have been scratched from the field from the get go is Ben Carson. Suffice it to say I am not going to go into all of Carson’s books but I think the 2015 book, “A More Perfect Union,” was phrase already taken. No originality at all. And after seeing Lindsay Graham’s book, “My Story,” I would ask who would really wants to know his story. When I see Graham I cannot help but think of James Louis Petigru’s Antebellum era statement: “South Carolina is too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum.” Sad to say but Petigru was a fellow South Carolinian.

I feel the Democrats are headed in the same direction as the GOP and the Kentucky Derby. After looking at the names of some of the books I have to wonder who will run wire-to-wire. I think I will play a long shot with Julian Castro with “An Unlikely Journey.” I hate to say it but after watching the 10 furlongs of the last Kentucky Derby it sounds like the next 500 days will be an unlikely journey. But the title also sounds very Tolkin.: “The Hobbit” or There and Back Again.” Who could not find inner strength from that brave Hobbit Bilbo Baggins.
“Where We Go From Here.” Yes , Bernie Sanders follows up that phrase with “Two Years in the Resistance.” This sounds like we are in the French underground fighting Nazis. And maybe we are and I just don’t know it. But if we are, I do not want my cause sounding anything like a question. The phrase where we go from here sounds too much like Bugs Bunny saying “I should have taken a left turn in Albuquerque.” Some think Bernie has already turned too far to the left.
Sorry Elizabeth Warren.: “This Fight is Our Fight.” I am curious about “our” in this. I think it really means “your” as it being my fight. For those of us old enough it smacks of the 1970 TV show Chico and the Man with the late Freddie Prinze’s familiar quote: “It’s not my job man”; I get the feeling that we will get more of the fight than we signed up for. Tell it to the Marines, Lizzy. We need something more Churchillian like: Deserve Victory or (Let us go) Forward Together.
My other long shot favorite is Kristen Gillibrand’s “Off the Sidelines.” Unlike Sanders and Warren’s book titles this one sounds more like getting into the game than fighting a war. It also reminds me of being on a team: put put me in coach. Everybody wants to be in the game. There are not many of us who want to ride the bench or be in the “Resistance.” What you resist persists.
Other books that won’t run are Beto O’Rourke’s “Dealing Death and Drugs.” That smacks of street gang movie that has been done many times. It’s a no brainer. John Hickenlooper’s alcohol tinged book gives way to the Days of Wine and Roses: “The Opposite of Woe.” I am pretty sure I would not put any money on that horse especially with “My Life in Beer and Politics” behind it. That sounds more like the follow up to Bret Kavanaugh’s “I like beer” speech to the Senate Judiciary Committee. Peter Buttigieg’s “Shortest Way Home” sounds like a short cut there are no short cuts on the race track. Its a circle and everybody is going the same way from the same spot to the same ending. You stay in your lane and you do the 10 furlongs. Besides it sounds very Nixonian to me. “Just get in the helicopter Dick.”
Finally, there is the front runner Joe Biden’s “Promise Me Dad.” I just have a feeling like Maximum Security, Joe Biden is going to end up out of the money, beaten by a Country House candidate running at 65-1. I am not sure if Horse racing has finally caught up to Presidential racing or the other way around. It’s a time where the winner or the favorite is the loser. Oh, and Long Range Toddy was way out of the winning come in 16th a long range off the lead.

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